Math 131

Spring 04

 

Things to Think About for Probability Games

 

Reminder: Bring a draft of your paper to class on Wed April 7 for peer editing.  Final papers are due Tuesday April 13.

 

 

1.  What do you need to do to assure that your simulation is random?  Are you doing it?

 

2.  How can you best organize the results you have found?  What representations will best help make your data clear to your reader?

 

3.  Have you collected enough data?  For people using computer simulations, be sure to repeat the same simulation many times, to get a sense of the variation between simulations.

 

            For people using other methods of simulation, it will be difficult to collect “enough” data.  Some suggestions:

 

            a.  Review the rolling die computer simulation, to remind yourself of how results can vary between trials.  Make an honest assessment of what you are able to conclude from your simulations.

            b.  Try simulating a simpler version of your game, just so you can collect more data, and then in your paper discuss how the results you found in the similar game help you think about strategy for the more complicated game.  Perhaps, you can also set up a simpler simulation on the computer.

 

4.  Most important!  What have you learned about strategy for your game?  What evidence do you have to back up your statements?  It’s OK if you can’t make firm conclusions, but you should be able to say something that you can back up (e.g. “this strategy seems best and here’s why.”).

 

5.  When you write your paper: have you described the rules of your game so that someone new to it can understand?  Remember, you can address this paper to a specific audience, e.g. players of the game, teachers who might use it, etc.

 

Copyright 2005, Debra K. Borkovitz.  You may copy or edit this material for non-profit, educational use only.

 

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